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Replying to Avatar Cyph3rp9nk

The technical analysis that the US monetary system isnt ready for nominally negative yield bonds? 😂 I didnt know we needed meme lines to predict that, inflation go up, cost of capital go up. Dont worry, our central bank will be by soon enough with yield curve control.

Coding isnt for everyone, find a data center job (engineering operations tech for mechanical work, data center operations for server work), seriously, all you need is some basic mechanical skills like turning screwdrivers. This is like an HVAC job but better, youll spend most of your time in the office, and the work is fairly straight forward. Theres opportunities everywhere for advancement and plenty of open jobs. If you are interested we can schedule a couple calls and ill teach you some basics to make you look better on an interview.

I dont prescribe this in how you deal with others, its why for all the shit people talk about amazon IDGAF, every other company in the area was firing the unvaccinated, amazon kept the bills paid in the most stressful time of my life. All im saying is when the government is dropping helicopter money, so long as you arent selling your own soul for it, dont waste the opportunity.

Took off nostr time in my mornings this week to cook omlet/bacon breakfasts, feels good.

So peculiar, my experience on nostr is exactly what I make it, I follow people that I like to engage with and I dont really get upset looking at my feed. Is that not the way it works at mastadon? Do these people hunt for outrage?

If so, the expression goes "the internet remains undefeated". Whats the point of doing all this blocking if people can just create a new account? Theyll go to a new server, theyll refresh their own server under a new name/IP. All you can really do is spread fear and sow discontent, you cant *win*, you are signing up for a never ending war against people you never had to pay attention too in the first place. If you are willing to venture out into the internet, be prepared with a thick skin and understand people say a lot of bad things, if you can find someone you like then take them back with you dont try to sit in the middle and tell everyone else how to act when you cant even control yourself.

Since the lockdowns of 2020 I really have found myself enraptured by warhammer 40k, its cathartic in a sense, its like these ideas taken to their logical conclusion. The imperium of man is fighting against chaos, chaos feeds on negative emotion, so naturally these immortal space marines embark on millennia long missions to enslave mankind and fight endless wars to make sure no one ever thinks bad thoughts, a somewhat counterproductive approach compared to trying to manage the chaos of your own life...

All voluntary exchanges are mutually beneficial.

Theoretically, unlikely the government could censor your transactions via miners though, at least effectively. Getting it back on an exchange is foreseeably an issue, at least for tax purposes. Other than that nothing really, some innocent people have been roped into frivolous legal trouble because of false positives of their bitcoin being spent on illegal goods, but this seems to be unraveling quickly because assuming you are mixing hard enough there is really no way to prove where your money went, and thats being shown in court.

Whats you take on thermite? Im not really attached to any of these, i generally think it was blowback that was allowed to happen as far as the towers go, 7 and the pentagon I think were total inside jobs. Though, the way the buildings collapsed I have always been skeptical that planes did that, too many loose ends.

Mankinds greatest psyop is that you should ever care about such things beyond the realm of pure meritocracy.

Replying to Avatar Dylan LeClair

You'll often see charts or visuals illustrating the depreciation of the $USD over time, normalized to $1.00, of which I occasionally share myself.

However, there's an important caveat: these visuals rarely account for short-term yields. Displayed below is the purchasing power of $1, adjusting for annual CPI inflation (in red) versus the purchasing power of $1 accounting for 1-year Treasury yields less annual CPI inflation (in blue), starting from 1962

Notice anything?

The purchasing power of $1 from 1962 to the present equates to $1.85 when accounting for 1-year Treasury yields and inflation. Meanwhile, adjusting for inflation alone leaves you with just $0.10 of purchasing power.

Quite the massive difference.

However, there's more nuance to consider:

1) Let's separate the data into distinct eras,

From 1962 to start of 2009:

- Average annual inflation: 4.40%

- Average 1y yields: 6.22%

- Average difference: +1.82%

Real gains in purchasing power.

From 2009 to Present:

- Average annual inflation: 2.34%

- Average 1y yields: 1.00%

- Average difference: -1.34%

Real losses in purchasing power.

2) The data doesn't include the 1940s where financial repression massively devalued the USD to erode real debt burdens (the data I quickly threw together only went back to 1962) in the post war period.

3) Why 2009 for the change in eras? What has changed? If the U.S. can just pay a nominally higher yield than the inflation rate in perpetuity, are the fiat doomers really just delusional?

In my view:

- Positive real yields can be sustained with a clean balance sheet. It's feasible for the government to pay creditors a positive real interest rate when real debt burdens are low, demographics are booming, and the global GDP is exploding as the world industrializes.

- With Debt to GDP meaningfully > 100% and other tailwinds reversing, this is no longer the case. Post GFC and the introduction of ZIRP + QE to facilitate "growth", has the positive real yield era behind us, at least until real debt burdens have been eroded - which will take either explosive real growth, or a steady dose of inflation above yields, debasing creditors in the process.

The Bottom Line: The reality is that the average/median American individual or family often doesn't have much disposable income to capture such yields. The ones that do, benefit; and the ones that don't are the ones that pay for it.

When you look at charts showing record wealth disparity, or are wondering why the political landscape is more polarized than ever, keep this chart in mind.

Fiat inflation didn't bother the investor class from for forty years as yields outpaced inflation. Currency devaluation wasn't felt in the slightest by this cohort, they didn't just escape the devaluation, but outpaced it significantly.

Now, with Debt to GDP levels domestically and globally near record levels, expect the post 2009 dynamic to continue into the future on a longer time frame. Don't let the current tightening cycle fool you as to what must occur.

Inflation > Yields, over a sustained period of time, is the only way global governments can mask their insolvency.

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.

And so, yield curve control is, inevitable...

I uninstalled windows to get more space for games on linux, but mostly out of spite. Sometimes games dont work, so I shake my fist and move on.

I dont think dudes are appreciating how amazing of an opportunity they have being single. If I didnt have family to worry about id be setting up miners for gridless in africa, or teaching kids in el salvador. I must pay the bills, I must be home on time every day, I must keep my nose clean; these are great problems to have, but it really narrows down the range of things I can spend my time doing. Dont whine because you arent getting laid, go do something cool with your life.

I fucking cant with skin tone emojis.

Data centers use tens of thousands of gallons of water per day in warm weather. Its enough to cause pressure drops on utility water lines, but going forward I think most data centers are using "reclaimed water" (shit water). Im sure the legionella inspections will be great.

Once funds are received by lightning they cant be rugged unless you are using a custodial wallet or your node is disconnected for an extended period, which even then can be mitigated by watchtowers keeping an eye on your peer issuing an old channel state. Different terms for things, yea, I think the way a lot of this is playing out pushes our understanding of how money works to ite limits, I really dont think layer 1 should be considered settlement, it works today for those purposes but everyone using bitcoin today could be using lightning self custodied today as well, as it scales into the future I think l1 will be unusable for anything but moving liquidity and we will call lightning transactions as settlements.