When will Bitcoiners capitulate to #Monero?

Will it happen at a certain price level or when their Bitcoin stack gets confiscated for the "greater good"? #BTC #XMR

Look at volatility metrics, not feelings. Monero is significantly more volatile than Bitcoin. And unfortunately especially on the downside.

It really is…

The masses need to stop consuming motor oil…

Wallet of Satoshi custodial is also banned in Spain as of today.

While I am not in favor of custodial wallets, when used properly, they are another tool to consider for protecting your privacy.

Without a doubt, governments want to keep Bitcoin on a tight leash.

Buying a toothbrush with Bluetooth and ai is _____________

Hey, what's your favorite non-KYC exchange (I know about KYC-Not-Me, I'm asking for recommendations from people who have experienced good service)

When was the last time you used monero as money?

What is the point of monero anyway?

Bitcoin is the MOST fascinating social experiment in human history. It tests human psychology, time preference, and belief systems. Until hyperbitcoinization occurs, most people will fail.

Thank you for the information. Could you share what types of jobs can be done in that field?

im normaly a fan of buying by conviction, e.g. for the long term but also: why waste a good oportunity to make some extra? yeah because you never know what the markets will do…

i see monero long term rising and bitcoin shaken and captured. but right now it feels hasty to convert.

We are all surprised about on one side the massive institutional buying of paper Bitcoin this year or two and it's flat price action. It's very difficult to square that circle for me.

ETFs, Fiat based exchanges and therefore market value can be gamed. Like with what Jane Street have been doing at 10am EST tanking BTC markets recently.

I find it interesting that in a year in which Monero has been delisted from every major fiat based KYC exchange apart from Kraken, its price has performed like you expected Bitcoin would.

It does almost feel as if NOT being open to Wall St / BlackRock fiat fuckery manipulation in ETFs and on major exchanges may be the better position here.

“If you see a proposal for an electronic money system check to see whether it has the ability to preserve the privacy of transactions the way paper money does today. If not, realize the proposal is designed to harm, not help, individual privacy" Hal Finney, Extropy Magazine (1993)

Is there anyone living a stable life as a freelancer by earning Monero and converting it to fiat to fund their lifestyle?

at which price would you recommend bitcoiners shuffle to monero?

OK, who is this? I wish someone shilled me Bitcoin 15 years ago. I'm not discounting the value of Monero but for me rn SOV is more of value and Bitcoin's verifiability is the better fit.

No comment. Monero shills everywhere.

But lightning privacy is better than monero 😉

They monitor it I guess through Alby Hub (a service which I pay for). Honestly might just shut it down because it’s really just a pain in the ass.

Decentralized money is more than privacy, though privacy is still important. If it's decentralized then we can figure out how to make it private.

"Since the State necessarily lives by the compulsory confiscation of private capital, and since its expansion necessarily involves ever-greater incursions on private individuals and private enterprise, we must assert that the State is profoundly and inherently *anti*capitalist. In a sense, our position is the reverse of the Marxist dictum that the State is the 'executive committee' of the ruling class in the present day, supposedly the capitalists. Instead, the State—the organization of the political means—constitutes, and is the source of, the 'ruling class' (rather, ruling caste), and is in permanent opposition to genuinely private capital." - Murray Rothbard, ***Anatomy of The State*** (2009) p. 42. Ludwig von Mises Institute.

#Agorism #Agorist #AnCap #Libertarian #Antistate #Antigovernment #AustrianEconomics #MurrayRothbard #Rothbard #PrivateProperty #Property #Homesteading #Seasteading #Capital #Trade #FreeTrade #FreeMarket #MarketEconomy #LaissezFaire #Quotestr

It looks like haiku-os.org is struggling for funding a bit this year. Haiku is one of the only #opensource desktop OS projects that isn't based Linux or BSD

How retarded am i for only having kyc corn ?

#asknostr #bitcoin

Being off major cex means no paper monero

looks like they plan to use spark for that

Feel free to tell me what experience is.

The problems Is you're preaching to the choir, pretty sure everyone on nostr knows this, its the Normie's on, twitter, Instagram, tiktok, Facebook etc you need to get through to.

Have you seen Monero Twitter recently dude?

Like every other post is blaming The Jews for everything, and it's annoying, and frankly I think it makes us look bad.

I get that groypers, and the daily shoah gravitated to monero becuase it's one of the only currencies that let them transact but it's so unbearable how bad the community is.

All the normal people in the community have stopped posting, been driven out, Censored, or accused to be Feds.

I see it as a problem personally.

Does he want to put jpegs on monero?

Send me the monero and I will order for you?

on a serious note, i think that's difficult to find

🐳 Whales Trade Cold Wallets for Wall Street Convenience

Some of Bitcoin’s biggest holders are moving billions into ETFs after July’s rule change allowing tax-free, in-kind transfers.

BlackRock alone has converted over $3B of physical Bitcoin into $IBIT shares, while Bitwise and Galaxy see growing demand.

These “portfolio trades” let investors swap their Bitcoin for ETF shares, retaining exposure while gaining TradFi perks like collateral use, loans, and easier estate planning.

It marks a major shift: whales once financially off-grid are now embracing Wall Street’s convenience, security, and legitimacy.

I don't know why they would remove Monero from exchanges. It doesn't make much sense to me. They are probably testing something. I'll have to look into it.

If the last CEX also removes Monero, I'd be very surprised.

Btw, your nostr profile literally has no follow button on web, only on mobile

No thanks. I actually use simplex to talk to associates and clients. I don't have a desire to be pinged all the time by random people. A email account dedicated to the site I can manage and check and respond once or twice a week works for me. The site takes a substantial amount of my valuable time and I have no desire to give more away.

Email is unfortunately a necessity evil in order to contact readers. I don't need or want your name or real identity. You are more than welcome to use a burner account. Just use something that you can check as this is how I contact people to let them know that I have added new features and drops. If the field manuals are not something you want or interested in then just bookmark the site and read the daily articles.

What are you talking about? The filters are already there and have been there for a decade plus. The new Core people are trying to remove the filters. To change the rules of the game.

Bitcoin is a monetary network from inception. The protocol only allows inscriptions because Rodarmor found a way to exploit a bug in Taproot.

In conclusion:

There's no public square on the global level.

If you reach a global audience you are either

1 already compromised (politicians, CEOs of international players, artists)

2 make a deal to take the money and shut up

2a soften your stance (maintain believability)

2b make a deal to stage kill or suicide the character (martyr to advance some ideas, mental illness to discredit)

4 get actually killed/sabotaged by a patsie

What many call alternative media is just controlled opposition or a limited hangout.

There are few independent journalists with a followership of a couple million worldwide reaching around 0.1% of the population. This will never become public opinion.

Bitcoiners (diverted and diluted) and even moreso Monero (blacked out) are in the midst of this epic fight. If you want to win you need to go for the plug in people's brains.

Do you think Kirk is dead?

👹👹👹👹

If you ever wondered how much you'd earned with a 1 TH/s home miner if you joined a pool, it's currently approximately 5.3 cents or 46 sats **per day**

#Bitcoin

My take on how the 4-year Bitcoin cycle changes in a post-ETF era.

TLDR: The 3 years up, 4th year crash, halving-based cycle is breaking. We are in a post-ETF regime where price discovery is dominated by CME + ETFs, not offshore perps. Cycles persist, but they're longer, flatter on the way up, sharper but shallower on the way down, and more synchronized with macro liquidity and options positioning than with the halving.

What changes in the post-ETF era:

1) Where the price is set

- Pre-ETF: offshore perps + retail leverage -> parabolic blow-off tops, then -80% busts.

- Post-ETF: CME futures + ETF creations/redemptions + dealer gamma do the heavy lifting. That caps "face-melting" tops and engineers weekend flushes (ETFs closed, dealers hedge via futures).

* Authorized participants hedge creations/redemptions with CME futures intraday; dealers use options.

* The Net effect: tops get "pinned" near large open-interest strikes, flushes happen on weekends when ETFs are closed and futures/perps can run stops.

So "tops get pinned" because rallies often stall beneath the biggest call walls because systematic hedging injects sell pressure right at the breakout level.

ETF plumbing shuts down on weekends, so the Monday effect is that when the stock market reopens, ETF flows and AP (Authorized participants) arbitrage come back online, often snapping price back toward fair value after the weekend move.

* As ETF AUM grows, dealer gamma around key strikes/quarters caps blow-off tops (they sell into rips, buy dips).

When Bitcoin sprints into a strike with large positive dealer gamma, the street's systematic selling into strength adds supply right where momentum needs air, pinning price under/around that level. Same in reverse on dips.

* Basis trades (long ETF/spot, short futures) arbitrage dislocations -> fewer parabolas, more mean reversion.

When futures trade richer than spot/ETF, funds buy spot (or create/buy ETF shares) and short the corresponding futures to lock in the basis; at expiry the two converge and they harvest the spread.

ETFs amplify it: Authorized participants can create/redeem ETF shares against spot, so the long ETF/short futures leg is scalable and precise, making dislocation-arbitrage the standard and not an occasional trade.

Net effect: Systematic two-sided hedging compresses basis and injects mean-reverting liquidity, so you get fewer parabolic blow-offs and tighter ranges around fair value.

2) Who holds and how (Post-ETF era)

- More advisors/RIAs/401k money -> systematic DCA, less forced selling, but more correlation to real yields/tech.

Flows are calendar-driven and benchmark-aware, not reflexive ape/fear.

That raises the decision interval (weekly/monthly) and dampens realized volatility (the actual price fluctuations over a specific period).

- Real yields, DXY going down is bullish and the inverse is also true.

- On-exchange leverage migrates to options overlays and basis trades. Liquidations still happen, but they look like controlled air pockets rather than full implosions.

3) Policy containment

- The likely arc (OP_RETURN illegal content scandal -> regulatory clarity -> licensed infrastructure) encourages ETF/custody flows and raises friction on self-custody. That dampens upside reflexivity (fewer "buy + withdraw" feedback loops).

* "Upside reflexivity" = a positive-feedback loop where price up -> behavior that tightens supply further -> price up more.

* In prior cycles, "buy -> self-custody" tightened exchange float and amplified upside reflexivity.

* ETF units don't withdraw, they immobilize coins in custodians. Reflexivity weakens -> smaller upside overshoots.

Because ETF buyers purchase shares (and the underlying coins are parked at a custodian while dealers/arbs sell rips and buy dips), the classic "buy -> withdraw -> thin book -> vertical squeeze" loop is muted - upsides overshoot less and mean-revert more.

Example:

In a self-custody bull market, $1B of demand might chew through an already-thin exchange ask, jump price +3–5%, trigger momentum, and the coins immediately get withdrawn, further thinning the book.

In an ETF bull market, $1B hits ETF shares; APs short futures / buy spot gradually to create units, parking Bitcoin at the custodian (Coinbase Trust - yes very trustworthy, if it's named "Trust"). Dealers’ long-gamma hedging sells into the rip. The net result: smaller upside overshoot and faster reversion toward fair value.

4) Halving ≠ clock (in the Post-ETF era)

- Halving remains a narrative catalyst but not the scheduler.

- Macro liquidity (real rates, USD (DXY), credit spreads) and ETF flows matter more.

What the new cycle probably looks like (Managed cyclicality):

- 18-30 months of "orderly up", punctuated by policy/liquidity scares (-30% to -55%), followed by "clarity" squeezes.

- Peaks are capped by options walls/ETF plumbing, crashes are bought by systematic flows.

- Realized volatility declines, weekend wicks persist, Monday gaps normalize.

- Draw-downs: Typical big draw-down -35% to -55% (not -80%).

- Returns concentrate mostly in buying despair and fading "clarity".

- If custody share stagnates while ETFs climb, expect contained tops.

Implications of this scenario:

- Add only on despair (-25 to -40% swift drops), not during "clarity" spikes.

- Expect lower CAGR from Bitcoin than prior cycles.

- Do not blindly extrapolate 2013/2017/2021 analogs because the market micro-structure is different now.

So yes, cycles continue - but they're not the old halving-clock cycles.

Expect a longer, ETF-managed uptrend, capped blow-offs, and engineered flushes keyed to macro and dealer positioning.

Let's look at Pre-ETF vs Post-ETF leverage.

You probably remember that in previous cycles, when retail plebs overextended with leverage, we got insane price action to the upside, which was then followed by cascade liquidations to the downside.

1) Pre-ETF (offshore perps):

- 20-100x retail leverage, reflexive funding squeezes, cascading liquidations drive face-melting blow-off tops and then -70 to -85% busts.

2) Post-ETF (institutional structure):

- Leverage migrates to basis (cash-and-carry), dealer options books, marginable-ETF units, and delta-one baskets (derivatives that provide exposure to an asset with a one-to-one price movement).

- It's bigger notional, lower directional beta-less explosive upside, faster but shallower draw-downs (-30 to -55%) as hedges kick in.

* Bigger notional because the market now runs on ETF AUM + options/futures carry rather than mostly spot on retail exchanges. That's deeper balance-sheet capital (APs, dealers, basis funds) constantly trading billions in notional via creations/redemptions, hedges, and arbs.

* "Lower directional beta - less explosive upside" because a larger share of flows is hedged or volatility-sold (covered calls, collars, long-ETF/short-futures basis). Dealers frequently sit long gamma near popular strikes; they sell rips and buy dips, and APs stage creations over time.

* "Faster but shallower draw-downs (-30 to -55%) as hedges kick in":

1) Shock hits (macro/headline/weekend): thin liquidity + leverage = quick air-pocket.

2) Hedges fire: basis desks buy back short futures as basis collapses; dealers' long-gamma hedging adds bids on the way down; collars monetize; rebalancers and AP/NAV arbs step in when discounts open.

3) These counter-flows cushion the fall before it snowballs into old-cycle −70% to −85% bear markets. Result: drops start quicker but bottom earlier because mechanical buyers show up by design.

In older "buy -> withdraw" regimes, upside reflexivity was huge and downside liquidity thin; in the ETF regime, two-sided hedging and AP arbitrage replace that with mean-reverting flows - they won't stop a crash from starting, but they truncate it.

With ETFs, most capital is hedged and arbitraged, so rallies are capped and selloffs snap faster but bottom sooner - think bigger money, smaller parabolas, quicker yet shallower (-30% to -55%) draw-downs as hedges and arbs do their job.

Implication: Upside skew is sold, downside tails are managed (until policy shocks).

So, is this a controlled volatility decline? Yes it is.

- Immobilized float (custody) + option gamma walls + CME hedging = capped rallies and orderly ranges.

- Policy "clarity" funnels users to ETFs/treasury companies, raising the market share of the limited volatility range machine.

- You still get shocks (headlines, weekend stop-hunts), but the structure pulls price back into the pen.

What I foresee:

- MoE (Medium of Exchange) stagnation: Payment rails lose mind-share, stable-coins absorb transactions, Bitcoin cements as a supervised SoV (Store of Value) wrapper.

- On-chain signals degrade: Lower UTXO velocity; exchange reserves matter less; ETF flow + CME Open interest matter more.

- Culture shift: Self-custody cohort shrinks relative to paper holders; regulatory nudges make sovereign usage legally/operationally expensive.

- "Buy puke / sell clarity" is going to become systematic.

- Don't lever as the structure weaponizes leverage against late longs.

In summary:

As ETFs accumulate coins, realized volatility declines by design: slower hands, hedged creations/redemptions, and dealer gamma cap the highs and cushion the lows.

The market shifts from halving-clock reflexivity to macro + plumbing.

The old casino is dead, welcome to the Wallstreet-fuckery era of gold v2.0.