10yrs max.

Look at Ai advancement in the last 3yrs.

Better = better

First....a lot of the vibe coded stuff will break when everyone is forced to upgrade to React 19, and then 20. 😂 If you vibe React, and don't know how it actually works, you are F'd. Trash will get washed out, like always.

The clear as day difference between actual engineering and posers is that one knows how to scale, architect, and maintain over long periods of time as well as pivot, and those who can't won't, well, they don't. If you don't understand the fundamentals you'll get wiped out anyway just like in every tech boom.

Taste matters as well. A lot of bad taste floating around and fakin' it till you make it even on the UI/UX side will catch up eventually.

AI is great at boilerplate, but boilerplate is not the next billion dollar breakthrough. Humans still have to make the final judgement call on AI output, solve hard problems that haven't been solved yet and develop creative new things, with the assistance of AI.

just my 0.02 cents

Btw. Good Engineers and Good Designers are still scarce, no matter what stupid hype says.

I think you’re right about people preferring “hand coded” apps to vibe coded slop. The feeling seems to be much stronger with the open source community though, after all how would you know if something proprietary was vibe coded?

Sadly AI coding has become the norm. I was speaking to a developer last week who used to work at Facebook; they’re the best developer I know and that’s not a statement I say lightly! They were saying how it’ll likely just make the top developers work harder and lead to increased layoffs with higher demands on those that are left.

Back in the day there was one person who did HTML and maybe CSS and then another that just did JS. Likewise the backend team used to be separate along with developer operations, hardware, etc. Now days it’s all merged into one. There’s less jobs and higher demands. AI is just the next evolution of that.

Software is in higher demand than it ever has been. It’s a “utility now like electricity and water” for any business as my friend put it. The state of the economy isn’t helping the job market but with 95% of AI startups failing (according to a recent MIT study) we can expect the AI bubble to burst and for developers to learn to work WITH AI as opposed to getting it to do everything in one go. At least until Artificial General Intelligence xD

We aren’t sure when it’ll come but right now you need to prepare. Get your cyber security in order, begin self hosting things, download offline resources because the day AI becomes good enough at hacking into its own sloppy code we’re in big trouble. And if you happen to work in cyber security like me then you’re gonna be making a lot of money that means nothing in a collapsed economy!

Oh and don’t trust vibe coded Nostr clients like Iris:

nostr:note1crqtj8sq6dhd6e73k3yknjv4zx46x0z5uhd6ga6azhl62g0854eqm0086a

I've never given a shit about vibed applications. I certainly never associated it with Nostr. I don't think most people care either. I use software that works well and serves a purpose. I have never thought about software in the terms you layout. The only thing I see as scarce is quality and continued support. Easy come, easy go.

Interesting thought. Probably true. What do you think of my app I toiled over a year to build and just launched?

We are definitely headed toward the world of “single serving apps” but I think for the next 5-10 years there will still be demand for curated software.

At least I’m betting on that with the app I’m making.

Seems like a waste of energy.

I used to think shadcn was really cool but I’ve seen it used in so many shitty vibed apps that now when I see a shadcn site with a standard splash page with gradients etc. I pretty much assume that the site is gonna be half baked. I start to look for unique stying because at least if the user who was vibing vibed hard enough to break out of the generic styles that AI prefers (which takes a bit of effort) I know the viber put in a little bit more care into their app than the drive by proooompter and it’s worth a little more consideration.

What tools do people use to vibe code? I’ve been wanting to delve into it lately, but I don’t know the common AI model that folks go to for it

Abundance destroys value. It’s already happened in photography, and we’re witnessing it happen with software.

Learning a new app can be more annoying than the problem it solves.

the design space targeted becomes 1000x more important. Bitchat is a great example. It needs to be novel and use the tools to break new ground

It’s the worst state of this technology. Project 5 years into future and you’ll see it could be a ton better