Over the next five years, what do you think the chances are that talking about inflation or energy will be censored on centralized social media platforms comparatively to what happened with the pandemic during 2020/2021?
Discussion
No me sorprenderia que convenzan a las masas de que poseer btc es un acto criminal…
High. They are censoring irlt in France and EU already...
Bullish for Nostr and the like 🐂
it’s already cancelled in the political left. They believe more in trickle down economics than the right.
They will do this along with climate lockdowns, CBDC and cyber attack. They have already talked about and telegraphed all of it. 👀
They already censor it.. That's why most bitcoiners are on here because we can't truly express ourselves on those social platforms because we're always saying how bad the monetary System Is.
Pretty high, as what has happened before will happen again.
100% likelihood. That dumbass astronaut senator from Arizona already floated the idea
78%
Seems very likely to me.
Even gold bugs will flock to nostr to hear & share the signal.
I think the censorship from Western governments during the pandemic will pail in comparison to where we are going.
In other words, yes, I think some degree of censorship on economic messages/content, that run counter to the state, will occur.
It will happen in a way that goes largely unnoticed. Muted influence from those without the right message. Shadow banning en masse.
If that happens, we nostriches will be demonized as dangerous darkweb black marketeers.
We are! 😈
The only reason I doubt it will be comparable is that a lot of decentralized platforms are being used now. The grip on information has been broken.
I don’t know but I do know who is already banning books.
That would be crazy. Hopefully 0% but realistically prob higher.
I personally think it depends on where in the spectrum of censorship you are looking. Outright, blatant bans and censorship? I'm thinking the odds are low, say in the single digit percentage likelihood. Shadow bans and "misinformation warnings"? I'm thinking much higher, say will into the double digit percentages of likelihood.
Inflation and energy prices discussion... I don't see how exactly that could be put under a lid. At least here in a small eu country the mainstream is roasting the govt and the cen. bank for inflation and I cankt see them doing 180 on it. Covid was very different.
Maybe some ways of resolving the problems will get "demonized".
What I expect is increasing pressure to tax "the rich" and increase property taxes. Capital controls to close the exits too "Learning from the Norwegian fiasco". You don't need soc. media censorship to do that.
What's the Norwegian fiasco about?
They rised the wealth tax by 0.1 percentage point and it triggered an exodus of ultra weathy.
https://nitter.net/DellAnnaLuca/status/1662111839977893888#m
Haha, loving it!
Just worried that seeing it published in Guardian, the main motive isn't to point out the existence of the Laffer Curve, but rather to rally some political support towards capital controls, and against the wealthy.
Its as close to certain without being certain
What are the chances in five years there will be no centralized social media?
They won't be able to get me to shut up about it.
I know rocket scientists who can't grasp inflation. They understand how to break the sound barrier but dont seem to grasp fiat debasement
My bet is energy and whoever the state manufactured enemy is.
Can’t imagine. Those two things are really hidden in very PLAIN sight.
I wonder how this works in countries who are already further down the totalitarian path? Are inflation references absent from sanctioned discourse? Is there any evidence that eliminating references to troubling economic news makes a difference? I can’t imagine it would be a confidence booster, though I suppose that would be the intent.
Interesting question. I still have hope we roll back out censorship. I think energy is more likely than inflation.
higher than they would be on nostr, that's for sure. A standing president said this to a reporter when asked about inflation, for instance: https://youtu.be/XXPKci5nFXw
There will be no talk about energy as we move to a ☢️ power standard….. it will be like talking about drinking water in the developed world….. it just happens.
69% chance
This kinds of questions would fit really well in a prediction market. Let everyone put something on the line to predict the future.
Guesses are better, far better, when given numerically and as you wisely included, with a date. The date provides 'closure' and thus a method to measure how accurate the numerical guess is. As Sikander posted...that is how prediction markets work. Only problem with 'markets' of prediction is they use money as a medium for prediction, which introduces an unnnecessary additional variable in the prediction. Prediction tournaments are better... Metaculus, GoodJudgmentOpen
On
Meta /Facebook 0.3
Twitter in USA 0.1
Twitter in Turkey 0.7
etc.
Then there is the challenge of measuring 'censored'. But these challenges are part of the landscape of forecasting.
You did say platforms, so Nostr as a protocol, is excluded.
Imo, govt could not pass on the buck for failed Covid response to anyone else - and hence resorted to censorship. On inflation or energy, they could, to multiple visible and invisible hands, so won’t care.
As sure a bet as a cold day during winter In Minnesota 🥶
It won't matter by then. most will have undergone the effects of each to know better.
Which pandemic?
100% and maybe as early as 2024
As someone who started to pay attention for the first time in my life in 2021/2022 up to present… it’s wild to me this was happening a couple years earlier.
Seems the likelyhood of "official" censorship of these topics are low, but there might be alot of self-censorship and people who arent interested in them. Its also entirely possible that the government will be like "ok you dont like fiat currency? here is a motherfucking gold standard, deal with it" and going from this fiat currency ponzi scheme to a gold standard, will cause alot of havoc. And that way they can blame the gold standard i guess, sorry that was going off a little tangent. My point is that the government doesent have to resist the inflation narrative, it can call it, and do alot of damage by doing a 180 from the current inflationary policy to a sound money thing.
100%
I think lower than you would first think. why? >>> 1)there is no "it's science" equivalent for the woke mob to get really angry about when it comes to inflation. 2) inflation will be felt from a bottom up direction rather than the narrative being controlled in a top down direction.
In 5 years? Lol, centralized social will be exclusively funny cat videos. Except they won’t even be funny anymore.
I think it’s more likely a CBDC is served up as the panacea to “save America”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220617a.htm
#[1] (genuinely want your honest insight) what happens to BTC in a world full of CBDC’s?
My guesses: Energy in general 25%, if people start calling for more/cheaper fossil fuels, 75%. Inflation, if it gets significantly higher than today and especially if many more people start realizing what's causing it, 95%.
However, the likelihood of armies of AI bots, deployed by the usual suspects, debating and "debunking" people's opinions and actual facts, I find at 97% with today's levels of the phenomena and people's understanding thereof, approaching 100 with increasing problems and understanding.
They won’t need to. They’ll just add more arcane hedonics to how they measure it.
what do you think?
Lets hope their is a push- back to a decentralized arena where the common people can voice.
for sure... CBDC talk is already censored
It already is.
When I talk to people about inflation many look at me like I am wearing a silvery tin foil hat.
we may see it happen faster to the banking industry and they seems to be the one under threat now a days.
Scary thought…but given what happened in 2020 there’s a higher probability of it happening.
pLandemic.