The ETFs have bought ~2.5x the new issuance of bitcoin since their inception.
MicroStrategy (alone) claims to have bought ALL the new issuance of bitcoin over the last year.
“…But but but ‘profit taking’…” is keeping the supply shock from occurring?
No … Coinbase - enabled by others - is fractional custodying bitcoin. We have huge amounts of paper bitcoin suppressing the price.
It will come apart eventually.
Today I saw nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z posted an article on Xitter in the wake of repealing the banks not being able to custody “digital assets” thing.
He might as well stand outside watching a tornado and start pissing, that’s how effective his post will be.
The more hooks Bitcoin gets into tradfi the more funny money games we deal with. Look at the spot trading patterns of late and tell me that’s a free market..
Let it run up and then fall apart and destroy all this leverage. ALL OF IT. Wash them all out and let’s see who wants to play fiat games then.
But it falls apart into another bear…like FTX.
It is suppressing the upside on Bitcoin. And when it blows up, we’ll get the downside to bitcoin.
We need to be calling it out and making people answer the difficult questions now in hopes that we can make it stop before it blows up.
Specifically, the influencer class needs to stop worshipping Saylor. Clearly his tone has changed over the last 3-6 months and we need the voices in the industry to hold him to account.
Saylor is a BitcoinBug. He cares about NGU and legitimising “digital assets” and he’s got the ear of the Trump family.
He wants the state to pump it and put laws around his bags so he can loan $$$ against Microstrategy’s stack.
Okay. So show me where on the bitcoin blockchain shareholders can see MSTR’s stack. That’s a killer feature of bitcoin and one of the reasons Saylor claims to be a bitcoin bug. Fully auditable. Superior capital.
Let’s see it then.
Saylor claims to be a Bitcoiner, not a BitcoinBug. I’m trying to impose that label on him because he’s going to end up on the other side of a fork to Bitcoiners and I want to be able to classify sentiment.
I don’t believe his purchases can be verified on-chain. But I do believe he’s leveraged to the tits and that corn is going to end up with the US Government as the basis of their reserves by way of his leverage.
💯
If this was the case there would be an arbitrage to identify. I'd be interested to see the data backing this claim. Spot v futures driven price action.
He won’t give you the data because he made it up.
Totally possible.
I think about this pretty often lately. It begs the question, how long can they float paper bitcoin.
Prove it
That’s the cool thing about bitcoin. Because it’s auditable THEY can prove it. And I am expecting that THEY provide corroboration that their words are true.
Burden is on them. I’d say the simple FACTS about how much they claim has been bought relative to the new supply issuance suggests that I am right.
But THEY (should) have the addresses. Burden of proof is on them.
I hear ya. I guess someone will prove it eventually if true
Bitcoin has a finite supply. Bitcoin IOUs do not.
This is why Proof-of-Reserves from nostr:npub1xkere5pd94672h8w8r77uf4ustcazhfujkqgqzcykrdzakm4zl4qeud0en and ETF in-kind redemptions are so vital!
Paper bitcoin will wrek them just like it rekt FTX
Personally, I’d just not like to be collateral damage in the short term if we can avoid it 😂
Fact!
Now that banks can more easily custody BTC, hopefully some of the ETF and MSTR institutions will move to alternate custodians.
Since they are a public company, if their Auditor covers it up, it’ll end up exactly like Enron.
It's up to us to squeeze them and just keep withdrawing
Prove it
That just means short squeeze eventually
absolutely, this is exactly what’s happening.
Did you forget how much money went into politics recently? It is all selling.
IMHO The problem with paper suppression is that it works til it don’t… and it don’t when there are shocks to the paper/fiat system…”the greatest trick the devil ever pulled” was convincing the world the marginal cost of production of the USD wasn’t $0 (at least since the 1970’s)
If u look at a price chart on gold and see the eye popping price increases in short intervals check out the correlation with fiat shocks/historical events resulting in printing
And who is causing this to happen?!?!? MSTR shitcoiners and ETF Degens that should be holding their own keys.
If you believe this and you own MSTR or an ETF......you are the problem.
Why do you think Coinbase is creating paper Bitcoin? It seems more likely to me that the early distribution/accumulation of Bitcoin is very concentrated in the hands wales
It will take a long time to reach equilibrium, possibly generations
The blow-off tops of earlier cycles suggest this is incorrect.
I don't think they are doing it 100% intentionally, I think they have lost coins/money in hacks and dicking around with shitcoins. Now they are just crossing their fingers that not everyone comes for their Bitcoin at once.
But who knows, "paper Bitcoin" is probably just cope, the same thing goldbugs complained about for decades before their asset became irrelevant
The good news is, nearly everyone who has played the paper Bitcoin game has been eventually found out. If Coinbase are fractionally reserving Bitcoin, they will be too at some stage.
However, in this example there’s a huge difference between Coinbase doing this elsewhere, and Coinbase doing it with MSTR funds. Just because Saylor/MSTR don’t publish their public addresses, do you really believe that they don’t/can’t monitor their own addresses behind closed doors? I doubt it.
The truth in the MSTR case is likely simpler. Coinbase probably offers the most professional service / lowest risk in terms of institutional custody. Saylor is not stupid, and one day this may change to someone else. I have no time for Coinbase personally, but the ETFs have also cast their vote in this.
The reality is simply that the op sec benefits of not revealing wallets outweigh the proof that MSTR provide to the market that they hold the Bitcoin. Agree that shareholders could pressure this if they feel it necessary.
Anyone reading this - would love to hear thoughts
#mstr
#coinbase
Paper bitcoin will eventually get short squeezed unless you end up with an FTX type scenario where paper bitcoin suppressed price then when they blew up they were bankrupt so couldn’t pay back the coins. MSTR and Coinbase would have to bankrupt and then we could see ppl facing criminal charges. So it is doubtful but possible. Otherwise when settlement comes and there isn’t enough coins then the Coinbase would have to buy coins to settle there debt and the added demand would squeeze the price up, kind of like the naked shorts in GameStop scenario, different but similar.
I agree with most of this in terms of what happens in the end when you issue paper Bitcoin, but it’s not quite addressing my point.
MSTR aren’t retail. They are likely using institutional grade multisig in segregated wallets that they can monitor, surely?! They can see their own Bitcoin and know it’s not being lent or rehypothecated elsewhere. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to reveal those addresses to the wider world, or indeed reveal any element is how they custody. If I was in Saylor’s shoes I’d do the same, and give our as little info on it as possible, unless my shareholders started overwhelmingly demanding it.
Sure entirely possible, they keep 1:1 for institutional bitcoin and just have a float to cover withdrawals for their million other users and only keep a fractional reserve for those. Just speculating of course but would not surprise me. They just manage it as risk.
Yes this combination is possible. If you hold billions with anyone you’d expect some pretty high assurances, wouldn’t you. But I accept this is speculation, and admittedly as an MSTR shareholder I am trusting them to custody it safely.
I don’t “like” coinbase but that said they have been around a long time without blowing up so they have been either keeping 1:1 or they have been managing their reserves conservatively enough to not blow up. Paper bitcoin at the end of the day is just unsecured debt.
If you’re calling me out for owning MSTR and FBTC , it’s a small amount of my overall position AND it’s illiquid with penalty. I just don’t get the IRA products where you hold your own coins…bitcoin is meant to be used.
If MSTR goes to zero I will feel validated in my concerns. And if MSTR moons because their speculative attack on fiat is real, I get the enjoyment of that, too.
Also, without shorting MSTR, it is the only way I can have legitimate skin in the game to call Saylor out. He works for me as a shareholder.
I wasn't necessarily calling you out, but there are a lot of "Bitcoiners" out there that are being lazy and buying MSTR and being even lazier and telling their normie friends to buy it.
I tend to agree that there probably is something fishy going on with paper Bitcoin.
Hopefully BNYMellon will start taking custody of these big holders and we can get a bank run on CoinBase and see how many coins they in actually have
L1 doesn't scale.
Most people will be moving IOUs. The solution is people keep getting rekt till they demand proof of reserves.
You can TXs through for 1sat/vb right now.
Bitcoin daily TX base has increased steadily year after year after year.
L1 doesn't scale is bullshit propaganda so far.
L1 doesn't scale for small payments for everyone.
There is no propaganda here.
Look at the earliest replies to Satoshi after the whitepaper release. Read this.
Then short it bro. Wait till the banks start playing. How else are we going to get extreme volatility?
I own MSTR. As a shareholder, I can be vocal about MSTR implementing proof of reserves. My voice matters.
Agree
A big enough player would need to weigh the benefits of calling the bluff of fractional custodianship/rehypothication versus the risk of going against the establishment.
Ok we got it after the 5th repost
The reposts (or some variation) will continue daily until the (real) bull market continues. Or coinbase offers proof of reserves for MSTRs bitty.
It’s been like that with gold for decades. Traders suppress the price of gold through manipulating paper gold, particularly on a Friday when their short positions have to be covered. How do we change this….CAN we change this to get true price discovery?
