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Currency of Distrust
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Christian | Husband | Father Professional hacker Lover of freedom tech
Replying to Avatar Guy Swann

Why I think the idea of “superintelligence” and “AGI” is HEAVILY exaggerated or misunderstood:

Assuming we have Ai much smarter than the average human, smarter than the typical PhD (granted smart and “PhD” are not at all equal but for the sake of simplicity). If (or when) this occurs, this will not mean Ai will just be able to invent whatever we need or make all decisions better than anyone else. And I think all we have to do is look at humans to make this simple assessment —

• If we asked a physicist and a biologist what was the most important thing to focus our time and resources on, do you suspect the physicist would find something related to physics and the biologist would find something biological?

This points to the question of speciality. What an Ai is trained on will determine what and how it values things, and there is no amount of information that will make it perfect and forever aligned with the truth at all times. It will always have a weight toward something, because the question of WHAT to value for training and for dedicating resources is present at all stages. It presupposes that we already have the answer if we assume Ai will just magically come up with it.

• in addition, the answer to “where should we devote resources” isn’t static. It changes year to year, month to month, even minute to minute sometimes. It is a question of value and judgement. The only way to sort out this relationship is through trade and competition, denoting the **necessity** of Ai that compete and exchange data and resources.

• General intelligence is useful, but extremely inefficient. Generalists are great to have for combining and relating ideas, but specialists still down into the true details and do the dirty work of real building and fine tuning of the world. Specialization isn’t just an economic phenomenon, it’s a physical reality of the universe. It will be the same with Ai, because Ai doesn’t defy universal laws, it’s just a computer program.

— A giant, trillion dollar cluster AGI will not be as valuable or produce nearly as good results or decision making capability as 10,000 much smaller and specialized AI’s focused on their own corner and trading resources with others to accomplish their task or test the ideas or paths of progress apparent from their vantage point. Nothing in nature resembles the former.

• Intelligence isn’t an omnipotent, unrestricted power. Mental intelligence isn’t the only kind of intelligence. I think as humans we have become deeply arrogant about the fact that we are “so smart” and we have begun to worship our own intelligence in such a way that if we ever imagine something smarter, then it MUST be God and it must be without any limits or flaws at all. Yet there is nothing to suggest this. The “smartest” people today often have the greatest blinders on, and everyone is only as good as the information they have and the values lens through which they see everything.

While the intelligence explosion will be shockingly disruptive and revolutionary in many ways, and while I do see it as an extremely likely outcome in the rather near future, I think the vision of a giant, all powerful AGI dropped on the world like a nuclear bomb is increasingly a projection of our own ignorance and arrogance. It simply doesn’t hold water, imo.

Covered a lot of these ideas in the 31st episode of Ai Unchained:

https://fountain.fm/episode/98UjiXJsa1b2VusbQQur

You nailed it on the idea that we worship our intelligence. Which is ironic when you consider the fact that most people alive today aren’t nearly as smart or resourceful as previous generations.

I’m not saying to put a ceiling. I’m saying stop trying to hyper scale every business to billions of dollars, especially via VC funding. I dislike that there aren’t more companies like 37Signals who just want to build good stuff and charge real prices for it and earn a healthy profit.

I hate that most businesses today aren’t just “here’s my product, I sell it for $x, which allows me to reliably turn a profit”. The financial engineering, VC fundraising, metrics manipulation based economy is gross.

The amount of pure greed is astounding. No one can be satisfied with making a healthy salary while treating employees well and not laying them off at the first sign of trouble.

Fuck, I can’t wait until I’m in a position to work for myself.

What a fucking G. Hope he survives 😂

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Dude sometimes when I drive over a bridge or near a massive building, all I can think about is how much man power went into building it. And then multiply that by every building, bridge, etc.

The irony? The bank didn’t have the money either…

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For context, Vegas hotels are currently pissed at defcon and attendees because last year, MGM got ransomwared right after defcon. So not to say they won’t with bitcoin attendees, but they feel threatened by defcon attendees specifically.

This was such a great podcast. Lyn is so interesting to listen to, especially beyond macro. Such a reasonable, measured take on everything.

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Everyone in the world gets them on the internet now because the way GDPR is written is so vague that companies would rather spam all of us with these popups than risk being fined.

I firmly believe that if 2020 wasn’t such a shit show, the XFL might have begun to force change in the NFL. It had so much momentum and was a great product, imo.

I love football, but I swear the nfl is doing everything in its power to make me give it up. I cannot stand the decisions that organization makes on a regular basis.

I’m definitely the “conspiracy nut” among my old friends, most of whom have fallen away at this point.

LETS GO! I’m with you. We live in a weird time. It’s simultaneously very hard to get ahead, buy a home, build a family, etc. but also incredibly easy because the competition is just so weak and lethargic.

All you have to do is work hard and actually give a shit about what you do and you’ll likely have people throwing money at you.

The hardest part for me currently is outrunning inflation. I’m in a good spot but can’t let off because my paycheck doesn’t go as far every year.

Our car did an update and completely bricked. Been in the shop a month. Currently shopping for a “dumb” car that just runs and can’t be stopped.