The power law thing is fucking dumb
Discussion
I’ve not even bothered. Figured I’d wait and see what others say and so far this is what I keep hearing so I keep moseying along
Why?
Some of the people promoting it come off as poor cringe hucksters. Many bitcoin will be lost by people attempting to trade it.
Yeah they come off as slimy to me as well
lol i can’t speak to the first point but the second point remains eternally true.
There’s no need to trade, but the fact that addresses, price and hashrate all follow a particular growth pattern is still there.
Is it fair to call a model dumb simply because some people are promoting it in a dumb way? I don't think the original theory encourages trading necessarily. It's just a model. People can use it however they wish.
Some people promote the theory of gravity in some really dumb ways, but the theory itself isn't at fault for that.
Those bitcoin would have been lost to lesser models anyway
It’s just a line that goes up and to the right. lol why are people excited by it? We all know bitcoin goes up and to the right.
100% stupid
are circlejerks usually smart?
Seems pretty efficient to me.
Middle out.
Once I got to be the pivot man.
It's the new S2F which was the new rainbow chart.
I still think the rainbow chart is less gay than the power law stuff.
Up & to the right, all models well be destroyed by the 🐢♉
Im sticking with rainbow chart with periodic revisions
Especially when it breaks and ruins many people’s wealth. 🤷🏼♂️ but so was a lot of public Bitcoiners saying it was going over $100k in the last cycle. 🤷🏼♂️
They are doing everything they can trying to keep the price down. Fuck with it the way they've fucked with gold prices. Wait till the rest of the plebs figure it out, because Bitcoin and inflation might go catatonic.
Remember several years ago when it hit $60K and it Orange Pilled a shit ton of people? Imagine how hot the markets will get at $100K.
Wait till people realize this is a revolutionary movement.
The observation that bitcoins has followed a power law for 15 years or the idea that it will continue until things are not denominated in dollars anymore?
The idea that bitcoins ascent is orderly/predictable
How much longer would it have to hold before you change your mind?
If it holds even beyond next year I’ll change my mind.
This ^
Nostr is one of the few places where I’m around people who are open/willing to change their mind 🤝
If you look at the standard deviations it’s pretty much a lock to hold next year - it’s like $50k to $500k range
The year is not over, but it ain’t looking good 😂
The model works until it doesn’t. Just like S2F … if any major government / company decides it’s going to buck the dollar in order to cement its future relevancy, every model out there becomes irrelevant immediately.
Sure, but that goes for everything ‘humanity will exist until it doesn’t’. The uncertainty of the future is why we have models. Saying models won’t hold up because the future is uncertain doesn’t make sense and only conveys the reason why we have models in the first place.
Okay, so you’re saying the power law model gets the timing right on bitcoin’s mass adoption? Because every pricing model is trying to represent the timing of bitcoin’s price appreciation, right?
Right, feels like this cycle’s PlanB model. Once it breaks they’ll find a way to tweak it to appear less wrong
It feels good to look at, but yeah I agree. The dollar will continue to be a worse and worse yard stick to measure economic value against. In the long run we’ll just stop measuring against it.
Nothing more cringe than watching grown men wanking themselves off over patterns on charts
Orderly is a better transition alternative, is it not?
I agree to some point... as long as inflation is "stable" the power law will function properly, but when hyperinflation comes and the dollar loses all value, thats when it breaks
btc does what it wants
I also find the concept that we can predict bitcoins price to be unlikely. However, given that bitcoin is a device that is extremely tied to nature, energy, entropy, etc. It would not be completely out of this world to see it correlate its mathematical trends to other thing in nature. The fact that it has power laws in other domains other than price is also intriguing.
Saying this from day 1. Is an old engineering model used only by living fossils. It will break on the upside very soon. Also the guy promoting it is a soy Italian teacher who can't take a single critic without going to cry at his mom skirt.🌹
yup
Agree.
Arguments?
People still talking pasta? 😂