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https://www.zeit.de/gesellschaft/2025-06/concentration-camp-guard-gregor-formanek-ss-national-socialism-sachsenhausen-court-trial-english

On twitter, someone wrote this post (slightly modified - original: https://x.com/smspoolnet/status/1941786886902558831):

------------------------

Monero (XMR) > BTC Lightning Network for privacy:

• XMR hides sender, receiver, & amount by default

• All transactions look the same on-chain

• No channel or routing leaks

• No reliance on third parties

• LN privacy is optional & can be broken with analysis

------------------------

My reply:

> XMR hides sender

Not through encryption. It puts them in a list with 15 other random pubkeys and says "one of these is the true sender." Then it publishes that list forever on a blockchain. Chain analysts can often figure out which pubkey is the true spender. In lightning the sender is actually encrypted and nothing is published to a blockchain. This makes it much harder for analysts to identify the sender.

> XMR hides...receiver

Not from the sender. The receiver's XMR address and stealth pubkey are shown to the sender in plaintext, and this makes it possible to do poisoned output attacks to trace monero, i.e. the attacker sends some money to a target and then watches the blockchain to see if the target sends it to someone who knows their identity. This is how many of the targets in the case studies on moneroleaks.xyz got caught. On lightning, by contrast, the sender does *not* know who received the funds, because lightning supports trampoline routing by default, meaning the sender cannot know if the person who *looks* like the recipient is *really* the recipient or just another routing node.

> XMR hides...[the] amount by default

(1) Only part of it. The fee is published in plaintext, and this is useful to chain analysts because they use it for wallet fingerprinting -- e.g. custodial services tend to set higher fees than users of self-custodial wallets do. Lightning, of course, hides the fee better by (a) using encryption so that each routing node only knows the portion of the fee they received (b) not publishing anything about the transaction on a blockchain.

(2) Monero does not hide the mount received from the sender. The sender picks how much to send to the recipient and monero does not support transaction chaining so the recipient cannot modify it. Whereas in lightning, the sender knows how much he *sent,* but due to transaction chaining, he does not know how much the recipient *received.* The recipient may have atomically forwarded all, some, or none of the payment to someone else, and the sender would have no idea. In this respect, LN has better amount privacy than XMR.

> All transactions look the same on-chain

No they don't. Some pay higher fees; some have more inputs; some have more outputs; some use pubkeys as decoys that analysts *know* are decoys (because they control those pubkeys, or their partners do). All of this data is used by analysts for fingerprinting and tracing.

But once again, LN does better here: the data produced by the sender is actually encrypted and padded to 1300 bytes. It looks the same to the routing node as if he was forwarding a payment from someone else. It's *truly* indistinguishable, verifiably, through cryptography.

And that's a major improvement on this metric.

> No channel or routing leaks

Monero uses something with a lot of similarities to routing: dandelion++

They are similar in this respect: both try to hide the sender's ip address by forwarding a packet to someone else, who then forwards it to another node, etc., such that "later" nodes don't know if "prior" nodes are the sender or just another "stem node" (in dandelion++) or "routing node" (in LN). This is actually really good for your privacy, but when LN does it, XMR people call it a leak, whereas, of course, when they do it, it's the best thing since sliced bread.

> No reliance on third parties

There is: if you use dandelion++, the nodes in the stem phase can collude to identify you as either the sender or at least another stem node. This is a leak that LN and XMR both share. But in XMR it's worse, because if you are using a light client (e.g. a phone wallet), you don't actually use dandelion++, instead you pick a random node on the network and use RPC commands to send your transaction, thus doxing your ip address to a random node, possibly one run by chainalysis. That is how one of the people got caught in the Case Studies section of moneroleaks.xyz. Lightning, of course, improves this: you don't pick random nodes on the network to send your transaction to in plaintext, instead you encrypt all your transactions and only show them to a select group of nodes chosen by you when you created your channels. This is way better.

> LN privacy is optional

That's also the case with monero. What wallets do most users pick? Ones like exodus and coinomi and freewallet, which are able to easily log your ip address and associate them with your transactions. (Freewallet is also custodial, so it knows even *more* data.)

Privacy is always optional, and if you're seeking good privacy, LN is the better option.

nostr:nevent1qqs0989hwl9xs7emzp73pf3psux472498rdmj5879wwshhhdg44acggppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgsy67zzq5tc9cxnl6crf52s4hptdwhyaca5j7r8jwll535tdadedvcrqsqqqqqpewjuln

https://blossom.primal.net/2e659ecb1d4369682066c100beb9a2996c17a60e7467fd10378b1a0a63a36b11.mov

nostr:npub1w3st0lffr3rmcwtlukxsxjd5v7vyuuenwuk3hrrld8xgzn7yua9sj7qhv8

nostr:nevent1qqsx08eltnp842h0yhhqful3f4f54khvww34gyf5we2hnrtuqxqc35qpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyqvfgg6xwwgwl8m5uprsxe37t04wcnxjru73ygknr3a8sfruvxt8yqcyqqqqqqglduvgs

https://youtu.be/UM57HhM8yV8?si=7NquUEFTsmBn8aN2

AI generated summary of the main points discussed in the video:

-----------------------------------------------

Here are the major points made in the video regarding China's population:

* **China's actual population is significantly lower than the official 1.4 billion figure** [1]. The video argues it is somewhere between 300 and 400 million, not even close to 800 million [1].

* The approach to estimating China's real population involves two steps: first, rectifying the population *before* the pandemic, and second, determining the real death toll during COVID-19 [1].

**Estimates for China's Population Before the Pandemic (Pre-2020):**

* **Russian Estimates**:

* In 2018, Russians estimated China's population to be between 500 million and 800 million [1].

* A Russian expert noted China's population in 1945 was 490 million, suggesting it's impossible for it to have surged to 1.4 billion after events like the Great Leap Forward, Great Famine, Cultural Revolution, and decades of the One-Child Policy [1].

* Other Russian experts added up publicly available urban populations (280 million) and, based on a traditional 1:1 urban-rural ratio, estimated the population at around 560 million, stating it should not exceed 800 million [1].

* **Japanese Scholars' Research**: Based on China's table salt consumption, arable land, and international grain purchases, Japanese scholars concluded China's real population was between 800 million and 900 million [1].

* **Host's Own Logic/Calculation**:

* The host previously showed China's real population before the pandemic was between 695 million and 890 million [1].

* This logic compares China's population growth to India's: 35 years prior, their populations were only 270 million apart. India, a younger country with double China's official fertility rate (3 vs. 1.7), still has a smaller population [1]. [Referring to pre-2023]

* Using AI and official CCP fertility rates, the host calculated an 890 million Chinese population for 2020. However, using Dr. E Fuian's fertility rates, the population in 2020 was only 695 million [1].

* **WHO Data Collector's Estimate**: A fan of Chinese YouTuber Lee Muya, who works for the WHO, concluded China's population before the pandemic was 750 million after attempting to repeat the Russian study (though facing issues with local data availability and fabrication) [1].

* **Consensus and Host's Conservative Estimate**: Russian and Japanese studies, along with the host's calculations, overwhelmingly point to China's pre-pandemic population being between 600 million and 900 million, or around 800 million [1]. The host's conservative estimate for China's population before the pandemic is **800 million** [1].

**Estimates for COVID-19 Death Toll:**

* **WHO Data Collector's Calculation**:

* This person estimated a **430 million COVID death toll**, leading to the current population estimate of 310-320 million [1].

* **Methodology**:

* Pre-pandemic, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs reported an average of 10 million deaths annually, with 1 million per month in winter [1].

* Chinese funeral industry workload grew 8 to 10 times during COVID, not including rural burials [1].

* Monthly deaths during COVID averaged 7 million per month for the first three years (early 2020 to end of 2022), totaling **252 million deaths** [1].

* After Zero-COVID ended (late 2022 to early 2023), an additional **120 million Chinese died**, based on internal Beijing police department data (e.g., 8,000-10,000 daily hospital deaths in Beijing, 5,000 in Tianjin, extrapolated across 2,000+ cities/counties) [1].

* An additional **50 million deaths** were added for the initial surge in early 2020 [1].

* **Total COVID deaths calculated by WHO data collector**: 252 million + 120 million + 50 million = **422 million** [1].

* **Host's Critique and Further Estimation**:

* The host acknowledges the WHO data collector's numbers are hard to dispute but points out they only cover up to early 2023, missing deaths in 2024 and 2025 [1].

* The host suggests the total number of casualties may exceed 422 million and could even reach **500 million** [1].

* **Falun Gong Founder's Statement**: In early 2023, the founder of the spiritual practice Falun Gong stated that 400 million Chinese had died in the pandemic and another 100 million would die until the end of the pandemic, aligning with the 500 million figure [1].

**Current Estimation of China's Population (2024):**

* **WHO Data Collector's Estimate**: As of now, China's population is between **310 to 320 million** [1].

* **Host's Estimate**: The host's estimate for China's population right now is somewhere between **300 million (aggressive) and 400 million (conservative)** [1]. This is based on an 800 million pre-pandemic population and 400-500 million lost lives [1].

**Indirect Confirmation/Supporting Evidence:**

* A viewer's contact in Japan, well-connected in the salt industry, reported that Japan is now selling **only half the salt to China** compared to a few years ago [1].

* This indirectly confirms that China's population is about half of what it was before the pandemic, supporting the host's estimate of a population of 800 million before the pandemic now being around **400 million** [1].

https://youtu.be/UM57HhM8yV8?si=7NquUEFTsmBn8aN2

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_triviality

https://video.nostr.build/e70a9f7fc983e47049432564c42bc9217c8c1d8de361c0fe7af4adc9cbe1bdcc.mp4