Made a bet today with a skeptic that Nostr will have more than 1M weekly active users by Jan 31, 2026
We are at ~35k today
That’s about 18 months from now
LFG 🚀
Discussion
Is the skeptic an X addict?
I'll also take that bet
I like it. I wish the predictions we made at Prague were recorded. We had some good ones for the next few years.
Link to verify DAU?
Latest DAU I saw last month was ~8k DAU's
Who’s building the best estimates?
Let’s get after it! I decided earlier today to increase my NOSTR usage. I’ll be a statistic in that growth 🔥
I’ll take the over!
the normies will be looking for cover, gradually, then suddenly, meanwhile the clients and relay network will also be beta, and then suddenly, release candidate
2,757.14% increase seems excessive 😬
IMO that would need a massive news driven catalyst where the normies get real scared. But I hope you guys are right.
where did you get the stat "weekly active users" ?
Bet details attached here 
Oh fuck, pls no, don't get Dan over here. I am more than happy to not have to see his takes anymore 😂
Make it 2 million sats to avoid the dinner.
In a naysaying Dan Held thread I had with him 6 months ago he thought nostr had a shitcoin attached to it.
Lets help you win this bet 🚀
🍿🍿🍿
Isn’t that the super-bicycle guy?
Leave him on X please.
How do I get in on this to bet you lose? 🤣
How I know you are going to lose:
Nostr has had 2.5yrs... only to get the 35k weekly users we have today.
Well be lucky to get 50k weekly daily users in 18mo. Alot of devs are just building what they want for themselves and buddies...
Not many are actually focused and locked into building for everyone else that's not on nostr yet.
That's the point. It's foss and scattered. Really wouldn't take much for a catalyst to spark adoption, and there are many possible catalysts.
lol I’m not going to bet now
Ironically I am more bullish than ever on nostr
Yeah. This is what everyone's been saying.
Yet it never happens.
People even said this about bitcoin.
But it wasn't PEERS who adopted...
It was Wallstreet and government...
They just see writing on the wall. Similarly some big nostr integration could be a catalyst. It doesn't matter, as neither make allowances for status both are freedom technologies.
People will realize that decentralized solutions are the only path towards freedom of speech. Twitter is far from that. Creators are already being dictated to complete KYC. Next will be the users. Not to mention the KYC services has links to a Intellegence agency.
nostr:npub1qm66zsskymwyuq7tep7lqekgg0tt80qk8tx0xp838rehwvsfqfdsdxwvrn in 3 months
Urgh
nostr:npub17hsu5gd24stmzuuezwvavgeuwwac233nfzg59dfyhf4fvel8n2sqw3d0k9 in 3 months
Where do we see the stats?
I bet 1 Million by Jan 1 2025!!!
I know I can count on my twelve frens to be here then...
I remember Clubhouse and how it grew - it got blunted by COVID ending but also country-level bans. I think by onboarding the right people country-by-country you can create a similar viral growth loop (though Clubhouse also partially grew through artificial scarcity.)
I just captured this a few minutes ago... A piece of art in Yountville, Napa county, called Chrysalis... It feels like where we are within #nostr.
My wish is for you to be right... LFG. 🦋🦋🦋🦋
I just captured this a few minutes ago... A piece of art in Yountville, Napa county, called Chrysalis... It feels like where we are within #nostr.
My wish is for you to be right... LFG. 🦋🦋🦋🦋
ຄົນເຮົາຈະເຫັນຄ່າໃນເອກະລັກຂອງຕົນເມື່ອເວລາມາເຖິງ, npub ຄື 'ຕົວຕົນ' ທີ່ສໍາຄັນຍິ່ງກວ່າສື່ສັງຄົມອອນລາຍໃດໆໃນປັດຈຸບັນນີ້.
I’m going to go with that bet.
⬆️⬆️⬆️💯
Ich werde mein Bestes geben.
Not remotely possible unless clients prioritize discovery of users and content ASAP.
Im saying that was a suckers bet, soon, very there will be no where else.... Ill laugh and watch them stack up.
Very skeptical.
Most people don’t care about freedom.
strfry current cpu usage is really low. like 5%. this means maybe 3x more servers could handle this type of traffic.
I think you’ll be right
I hope you win easily, but how do we measure active usage? Count npubs publicly posting within a 7 day period on each known relay?
I guess he is referring to http://starts.norstr.land
Ambitious! The purple pill will lead to the orange pill haha
New here, I'll try to do my part 😀
I didn't think it would only be 35k 😅 ...(for now)
LFG 🚀🚀
Everybody uses the #Nostr, most of us just doesn't know it yet.
I almost forgot about this dude. I stopped following him after getting into an NFT debate. I hope you win this bet Alex. 🤙
🫡 will keep pulling them over from TicketyTok
LFG 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
nostr:note1d6aehu8nfxchmdqny7v583xqv0vqd8y54epf3a9364dudx664c2qn4w4k9
Thought I saw this on longbets.org
putting the stats.nostr.band values in a forecast for Jan 31 2026 gives me about 72k weekly active users
Dan can gofuckhimself, nostr is the way
Just came back to nostr after being gone for a few months. The clients have really gotten better and the underlying functionality is competitive. Totally doable.
Hmm... Can we get Wikileaks to become Nostr-native by then?
lemme guess - Dan Held?
I'm calling in all who owe me favors, let's do it!
That will not happen
Our benevolent censoring overlords will make sure of if.
Thinking more about the @gladstein bet. Not only would I take the over, but I would actually take an order of magnitude over 1M weekly active users by Jan 31, 2026. Maybe much more.
nostr:note1d6aehu8nfxchmdqny7v583xqv0vqd8y54epf3a9364dudx664c2qn4w4k9
1) Current WAU count is already likely much higher than 30k (if you count reading nostr as active usage)
https://primal.net/e/note189hk9l3wg62ge0klc0jvadnpdegycjxflcwtqa2yslmetpe96shsfxzuw3
2) Two companies alone will bring us way over 1M users. And they've already got Nostr integrations live
https://stacker.news/items/554100
@cash
https://primal.net/e/note1x96fnaqmme5klpg0ra0srgj8zk70tt679zxcshkwjlga5t3qw5dswf8xu6
@tidal
3) Nostr Wallet Connect is likely to go mainstream as the global bitcoin/ecash payment standard and I expect to see every bitcoin/lightning wallet adopt it over the next year
4) AI agents coming to Nostr is real. As information goes infinite, Nostr is the only corner of the web where every note is signed (and thus trustworthy). And Nostr + Lightning is the only infra capable of banking these agents such that they can interop with each other and us
5) And ofc that's to say nothing of what will actually happen, which is that A) current UX will improve radically (making it easier to onboard noobs to existing use cases) and B) new unexpected nostr use cases will emerge, surprising even the biggest nostr bulls to the upside.
Buckle up - it's gonna be a fun next 18 months 𓅦⚡️🚀
I wish you are right!! LFG!!
a lot of people miss that Nostr isn't just another social media platform. There are so many possibilities.
nostr:note1d6aehu8nfxchmdqny7v583xqv0vqd8y54epf3a9364dudx664c2qn4w4k9
let the npub mining and bots riiiiiiiip
First gradually, then suddenly.
Gradually, then suddenly!
First they ignore you…
We all know how it ends 🚀
#nostr
count me in!
Great bet! All it takes is the one right person to flip the masses attention over to Nostr
nostr:npub17hsu5gd24stmzuuezwvavgeuwwac233nfzg59dfyhf4fvel8n2sqw3d0k9 in 18 months
We are now halfway through those 18 months.
I think the bet will come down to semantics
Either way I am much more bullish and convicted on nostr than last year and in the event that I lose, am happy to use the steak dinner to purple pill Dan
Win win
> We are at ~35k today
That there will have pinned it to trusted pub keys.
Now we're at ~42k, down from ~48k in Jan.
I'm also bullish mind you, just more delayed.
The relay network has been at capacity for some time. It stands to reason that without investment it cant grow, and the relay network has had 0, or even negative, investment. On the other hand Nostr's rivals invested heavily in their netowrks, both AP and Bluesky are growing fast, though the twitter exodus helped. Bluesky often adds more users in one day than nostr has acieved in over half a decade. Growing a system requires planning, work, and effort. So far that has not happened in nostr. And it has happened in AP and Bluesky.
With you100%. I think ATProtocol has done infra right, and it helped that their team had all those SSB frustrations to learn from. Soon I think we'll see that new ATProtocol Instagram clone (called Flashes, and quite good) start to add solid numbers in that direction too.
I'm bullish on Nostr for certain B2B use cases exclusively. For those use cases the relay network is private.
I also think nostr will shine for certain use cases. Instragram is already on ActivityPub with threads. Luckily ditto has a bridge to both ActivityPub and BlueSky. Ditto is a great hybrid system. We need more like it.
Ditto as a web client is great.
Ditto as a thing for communities has always confused me. Someone spins up a Ditto instance for a community for the Godot game engine. Cool. But for my posts to be sent there I need a nostrgodot.com NIP-05.
Even if I give up my NIP-05 and take that one, when I post in Ditto my posts go out to all my relays. I can't control which posts go to the community feed and which don't. So all the "community" seems to be is is a feed of all posts of people with a particular NIP-05.
I keep thinking maybe I'm missing something and I know a lot is going on behind the scenes but so far that's what I've got.
We can do this 💪
#grownostr with more human users 💜⚡️
nostr:nevent1qqsxawum7re5nvtaksfj0x2rcnqx8kqxnj22us5c7jca2k7xndd2u9qv9v0e6
I am hard at work recruiting 😎
Easy win. Betting against open protocols is like betting against gravity…slow at first, then unstoppable. Nostr is inevitable. #grownostr
nostr:nevent1qqsxawum7re5nvtaksfj0x2rcnqx8kqxnj22us5c7jca2k7xndd2u9qv9v0e6
It’s inevitable. Nostr will win.
wow hope that happens
Uhggg... Dan Held is in my feed...
It's 6 months from now...
nostr:nprofile1qqsp3yzapfwkyw4cr2vt4xx9s27474lj2pkxhqyfqh79n826pv3fkzqpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejszyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9ekxzmnyqy2hwumn8ghj7ct8vaezumn0wd68ytnvv9hxg6pmktg 🤭
Saw that earlier. I didn’t want to comment 🤭
Nonsense. Weight in! ⭕️
🤣🤣
What do you think happens first?
1M USD
or
1M nostr users
Bitcoin for sure. There are under 1M people valuing freedom...
I’m thinking that thing of ours too.
We've got several things going...
If you're saying what I'm thinking, she can't survive 1M users. 🤭
Lmao that’s not a thing of ours. Agreed she can’t possibly survive 1 milli that’s crazy 🤣
I do financial education / literacy and Nostr has been part of it since we started.
It has been quite a steep learning curve but it’s impressive to see how much more user friendly platforms have become. Keep up the great work 🙌
Make a dedicated short video format client with a dedicated media server, and a simple algorithm that shows videos based on a users likes(show videos that other users with similar likes like)
And another algorithm that shows whatever is trending among all users.
These algorithms would control the "fall you" feed.
That's it, nostr just replaced tiktok, YouTube shorts, reels, etc.