i expect bitcoin to hit new all time highs in gold, silver, and dollars in 2026.
lets come back to this note next year.
stay humble and stack sats 🫡
Discussion
Exactly! 2025 was just the 'character development' phase of this movie.
If BTC didn't give us the $200k gift wrap this year, it’s because it’s busy preparing a triple crown for 2026. Crushing gold, silver, and the dollar all at once isn't just a pump; it’s a takeover.
We’ve survived the 'refreshing the chart every 5 mins' ritual, so we’re ready for the big stage. I’m pinning this note. Next year, we won't be checking prices; we’ll be checking the history books.
The rocket didn't stall—it just decided to take the scenic route to glory. See you in 2026 at the top!
Based on what?
All these charts are in USD nostr:nprofile1qqs0npwnpyvheqz7zuvuwvv9k460c0hyqlturds40hhfn34vufvehwcpz9mhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejj7qghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yhxummnw3ezucnpdejz7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wghxcctwvshswn6x4a 👻
"i expect USD investment in Bitcoin to increase faster than investment in gold and silver"
I'm shocked 😑
maybe we'll get 200k by conference day.
the smart money is watching the hashrate in 2026
nostr:npub1m5s9w4t03znyetxswhgq0ud7fq8ef8y3l4kscn2e8wkvmv42hh3qujgjl3
nope, weird conflation
and sure, hash rate is an important metric too
whats the weird conflation?
that chart is (XAU/USD)÷(BTC/USD)
does the USD price of gold and USD price of Bitcoin not measure the amount of dollars chasing those assets?
or do you have some secret market where theyre actually trading Bitcoin in gold without any relation to USD?
these are fiat-denominated charts
measuring relative fiat investment.
comparing bitcoin directly to competing monies is the most objective metric
market dictates relative purchasing power
just like xmr/btc is highly relevant, and unrelated to a ‘usd investment’
calling them monies doesn't change anything
its literally the amount of usd chasing Bitcoin compared to the amount of usd chasing xmr/gold/silver. that fiat trying to find a safe haven.
how is that "unrelated to usd investment"?
or you think the price increase in silver is because suddenly more people think its a better money?
and that will change sometime in 2026?
your graphs are primarily measuring relative fiat speculation.
if we were to trade gold for bitcoin p2p the price would be the above
just because the most liquid markets in the world are us denominated does not change that
weird purity test
I don't think of it as a purity test. I think hanshan has a unique insight into that usd is the unit in which all things are valued. The dollar value is what these charts still show.
its retarded semantics
“most xmr is traded against usd, so if you use xmr to buy things you only care about fiat price”
I am really not trying to be semantic. Is the value of the gold, silver, bitcoin not priced in dollars first before comparing them to eachother as priced in dollars?
you can translate relative value between liquid markets
what pairs those markets trade in is irrelevant
most xmr and btc is traded against usd
there is still an exchange rate between the two that is irrelevant of usd
not really. any deviation between the relative Fiat value is an arbitrage opportunity.
if there IS any deviation immediately a million trades jump in and drive it back to the relative Fiat valuation of the pair.
why? because the UOA is the most attractive asset. free fiat.
minus the friction involved of course. which is why you see temporary variation in difficult to access exchanges/pairs.
you just described liquid markets
bitcoin is my unit of account
the most liquid markets in the world right now are usd pairs
pro tip
dividing the USD price of something
by the USD price of Bitcoin
doesn't change the unit of account
your personal "unit of accounting" maybe
but clearly you're not interested in why the difference might be important to understand 🤷
i honestly dont understand your point
I recently sold a guitar for coin. We agreed on the price, in sats, a couple days before we met up. There was no back and forth trying to triangulate the BTC:USD rate at the exact moment we made the trade 🤷♂️
if you do this purely, without ever looking at the USD valuation of those sats, then it's a true Bitcoin standard.
but if we're always dividing the USD valuation of a thing, by the USD valuation of those stats, then it's not really a Bitcoin standard.
its still a fiat standard.
I'm not saying don't do it. definitely, trade in sats as much as possible.
I'm just saying don't fool yourself into thinking that you're off a Fiat standard.
but we need is communities that can get self-sufficient to the point where they can price their needs directly in sats without looking US dollars.
*what we need
I think the point is that we all still think and measure in dollars and it is incredibly challenging to create a world where btc is the actual independent unit of account.
it appears to be another quantum leap in perspective for many.
the first step seems to just be telling bitcoiners "you dont magically get a 'hard money' price by dividing by (BTC/USD), you get the fiat-denominated opportunity cost."
the point is we are still measuring the relative amount of US dollars chasing different assets.
we do not magically get to a hard money standard by dividing two fiat prices.
when the underlying UoA is fiat, we inherit those fiat distortions.
the moral of the story is
"accurate pricing is impossible on a fiat unit of account"
this needs be taken into consideration by bitcoiners.
i know it LOOKS like semantics, its not.
its a fundamental distortion in prices that is invisible to most. a fish doesn't know the water etc...
i appreciate your point about the less liquid markets. those probably have more accurate pricing.
i think this is important point because it demonstrates exactly HOW challenging it is to break out of fiat evaluations and to truly use Bitcoin in a sovereign way.
ie, small communities, pricing their needs *directly in Bitcoin* without any relation to fiat UoA insanity.
But the usd value is completely canceled out in the equation.
in pure mathematics, sure. the denominators cancel out and you don't have to worry about it.
IRL you're still measuring based on *some consistent thing*
the point is that it matters WHAT THAT THING IS.
because you inherit the distortions of the thing itself.
this is waxwing illustrating my point beautifully.
its ridiculous to believe you somehow get rid of the UoA *by dividing two prices denominated in that unit of account*
the result is *proportional USD value*. the USD doesn't magically disappear because THATS WHAT YOU MEASURED WITH.
there's an argument to be made that the proportion would work out the same, no matter what UoA the market was using to denominate prices.
but that doesn't hold water IMO.
if we had any isolated markets that were denominating freely in something like gold or silver (free of USD market influence), i dont think the valuation of commodities would work out AT ALL like the USD denominated markets do.
what we use as the underlying unit of account *distorts pricing*
and don't even get me started about "are USD consistent across different markets and at different points in time"
because they're not. your "lets see where there charts are next year" means little.
what you will be measuring with will be a *different "USD"
this must be deeply appreciated.
Pretty good articulation (compared to past ones), even if it's still a bit impossible to argue against the math. I still like the xmr discount you get in some specific markets as a concrete example, iirc. In that instance the arbitrage may not be wanted, as "cleaning the trail" might be considered more costly to seller than the discount.
Thanks 🫡
although im not clear what "argue against the math" means? you mean they obviously cancel out?
like when I divide the USD price of a 2010 Toyota Camry by the USD price of Bitcoin, US dollars disappear and have nothing to do with the proportion I get?
Yeah, the canceling out thing is hard to ignore. UoA and deep liquidity (hence easy arbitrage) is a tough thing to break from.
Was thinking other day though, that if you stretch out the time between trades, then you can more clearly see how it's different trading pairs, since usd price for things fluctuates a good deal over even relatively short times. I think it's a gradually then suddenly thing in the end. Maybe we slowly chip away at USD UoA as markets freeze up here and there, and people use BTC (or xmr..sigh) increasingly.
Yeah, you're trying to squeeze into a short note what may be a short essay to articulate properly. Not that I could do it, nor that I even fully agree with your claim. But I know you've thought about it a good deal, so maybe have more of a point than comes across in shorter replies.
I don't know... I feel like the more words I use the more it sounds like a semantic jerk off.
that short example that I just posted is probably better at actually communicating it effectively.
How is the exchange rate between gold and btc made without usd?
people trade btc and gold p2p
the most liquid markets are in usd
people trade btc and xmr p2p
the most liquid markets are in usd
But the p2p are still trading the known usd value of btc for the known usd value of xmr even if they never touch it
how else would the trade get determined?
Only under duress or immediate utility value does a trade take place outside of a usd valuation under it in my mind
its not a purity test.
UoA matters.
what we are *measuring with* matters.
I just got called smart money.
🥹
Based on their cult mentality.
lets give credit to the the gold and silver investors , they have suffered much. I own 100 oz. of silver. Its good street money for the people.
Silver is a bribe the local cops to let you out past curfew. Gold is a bribe to the boarder agents to let you leave the country. Bitcoin is the money you take with you to start over.
I kind of like price-adversary years tho. I feel free to talk about bitcoin without anybody thinking I’m shilling
Time to surprise people to the upside 🚀
Oh no, now we are doomed. We got an Odell price prediction. Super cycle to the downside confirmed 😭😂
This agrees with my narrative so it must be true
Ride or die 🤠
And nostr:nprofile1qqsywt6ypu57lxtwj2scdwxnyrl3sry9typcstje65x7rw9a2e5nq8spramhxue69uhky6t5vdhkjmndv9uxjmtpd35hxarn9ehkumrfdejsz9thwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmnytjq0jg is bearish on 2026
if you still think that 1 btc = 1 btc than why are you convererging and thinking in fiat or metal 🫂
Stay humble and stack sats 🙂↔️
Not in doubt
Expect is the right word here.
I expect more adoption of the bitcoin network solution, because that would be LOGICAL.
The wait is on. When will others start to see the light too? The real light is beyond the AI and Magnificent 7 and current war gaslighting, that's for sure...
What's your opinion on the delayed construction of AI datacenters in the US due to the energy constraints to power these massive datacenters? Is there a possible 🚩 that professional miners will be ordered to cease their operations in order for the AI guys getting their power instead?
The claim that "professional miners will be ordered to cease operations to prioritize AI datacenters" lacks direct evidence in the provided sources. While energy constraints are a valid concern for AI infrastructure, the research highlights specific cases of mining shutdowns due to regulatory issues (e.g., rezoning failures in Toledo [[1]](https://www.facebook.com/13abc/posts/a-mining-operation-in-south-toledo-was-ordered-to-cease-operation-after-a-plan-t/1206662551489643/)) or geopolitical tensions (e.g., Barrick Gold’s Mali operations [[2]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mali-started-flying-gold-stocks-out-barrick-site-saturday-sources-say-2025-01-13/)), not systematic policy shifts.
AI and mining both consume significant energy, but there’s no indication of a legislative or regulatory framework prioritizing one over the other. The cited sources don’t mention AI datacenters directly, and the broader discourse on AI’s economic impact remains speculative [[1]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1ofj1mp/if_ai_takes_over_most_jobs_and_leave_humans/).
Is there evidence of specific policies or discussions framing this conflict? Or is this a hypothetical scenario? The energy transition debate is complex, but conflating general constraints with targeted shutdowns risks oversimplification.
Join the discussion: https://townstr.com/post/826bb02795391e813fcb63de41dd0f2010196b549c46039bf7ee00be2ae0ca90
Dear AI, am talking about bitcoin mining, not mining in general.
$58k by conference day
Inverse Odell? 😜
Oh, no. I just had PTSD from "$200k by conference day" .... 😂🤣🙏
Work and stack sats
If everyone expects, it's not gonna happen.
Stop It You were all wrong in 2025. Hahahaha
i was definitely wrong this year but i also very loudly faded the super cycle promoters so i got that going for me
i own my mistakes, predictions are fun to look back on, get over it
I whole heartly agree that a even greater compression will eventual be relaized - but not in 2026 maybe 2029 the earliest.
The amount of blood that will need to be shed for Bitcoin price to exceed Gold/Silver is most likely a thought a few can stomach. I expect European based Bitcoiners will see this long before American style Libertarian's do.
I expect the opposite in 2026. Gold and silver will manifest their destiny in a new monetary order that thinks it can exlcude Bitcoin. BItcoin-maxi's will be in disbelief about the prehistoric relic gold price performance. Envy will the the test of 2026.
Bitcoin can be expected to track even more tightely with mag-7 and it will be further engrained by trad-fi MONEY experts - that Bitcoins "STORE OF VALUE" narrative is dead and the the death of the 4 year cycle will only be the mother of all bubble pops -- seems strange that Wall ST vets in their 50 and 60's are so positive that Bitcoin will be trading at the $10 k level.
Of course it won't be.. but the narrative is going to be bitch to handle. I am jsut happy to DCA and no rush for the Samson's moon candle to manifest - it is a certainty, I just do not know if it will be in my lifetime.
This is a good take.
Beside you freaks regardless!
GM it’s SATurday!!
Right or wrong, stack as many sats as you are able to.
This is the correct way to think about btc price imho
i’ve been saying that you should not be pricing bitcoin in dollars.
gold is the ultimate test of the scarcity of bitcoin
Bring on the big brain 🧠
Lol, bitcoin is tracking stocks at best.
Nothing has changed.
Bitcoin will underperform given macro setup and specific conditions impacting costs associated with bitcoin mining.
Silver, gold and stocks will outperform bitcoin.
Silver will continue staying ahead of gold in the beginning of the year.
Gold will catchup later.
Stocks are a wild card.
added to the chart! new ATH in USD in 2026. gotcha.
Added to the chart💻😱.
ATH next year in USD means at least something around 130k per coin.
Let’s track it.
We all except that every year :D
Don't think so.
Core v30 destroyed bitcoin.
It's not a coincidence that ATH was the day core v30 was released.
Until they fix Op return bitcoin is doomed.
My take:
Silver up to $150 main
Gold steady climb
Bitcoin drop to $58k, small climb then drop to $40k before bouncing to $210k
All before end of March!
That is exactly why 30 : 30 : 30 portfolio rocks
BTC : GLD : VTI ..
No rational investor ever puts all their eggs on one basket ..
#WhoCaresAboutYourExpectations ?!
Yes
Looks pretty over sold right now