who rugs first? swan or binance?
Discussion
Binance of course🤣bnb defaulting soon
Blackrock etf rugs first
I don't even understand why Swan is a choice here. Shit's been getting dicey with them as of late but I don't get it. Cory knows better but the things I've been hearing about make me nervous that I was wrong about Swan.
What have you been hearing ? Do tell…
👁️🗨️👁️🗨️
I reckon Binance will be the last to go. Too many people incentivized to keep that wheel spinning.
Cory will rug before CZ
Prolly swan. Binance would be nice though.
Binance has a longer runway, so…
Swan as Binance has bigger name, easier to find investors
Binance va a caer pero no ahora, pero tarde o temprano va a caer
Swan
Hopefully neither, but the only way to guarantee you don't get rugged is to self-custody your #bitcoin
Our guide makes it easy: https://bitcoin.rocks/wallets
Longest 30 days of my life waiting for sats to unlock at swan. Smashed buy with bonus check then heard Prime was losing their license in my state.
🤔
I will go with option 3: the coordinated double rug
Liquid
Swan
What is happening with Swan? I haven’t been paying attention & unfollowed Cory, because he was just a touch too sanctimonious.
Binance as a choice is obvious. Can someone enlighten me on why swan is on the list? Rug how?
Sorry, not sorry.
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definitely the Persians
always rugging 
What did I miss about swan ? 😁
I don’t know about the rumors, but Swan’s new custodian is Fortress. Fortress was started be same people that shit the bed at prime trust on the lost key, multi-sig fiasco.
Can someone expand on what is going on with Swan
Swan’s custodian Prime Trust recently had to go for bankruptcy and rugged everyone- Swan scrambled to get “all assets” moved to a new custodian “just in time” except that new custodian Fortress Trust is being run by the SAME GUY that ran Prime Trust. Bitgo is also involved now, they mentioned purchasing Prime Trust before the default but they “pulled out”
So basically not your keys not your cheese
Damn… Did I miss something?
It’s gotta be nance right?
👀
I had a nervous no-coiner friend locked and loaded after years of cajoling. I recommended River or Swan. I know KYC bad, but easy for newb.
Swan shit the bed the day after he signed up and it took two/three weeks to get approved KYC. He saw all the drama first hand on Twitter during that time, and although he didn't lose any funds, he will never go near Bitcoin again.
His loss. He’ll return at the price he deserves
If you’re gonna recommend KYC onramps to newbies Cash App is the obvious choice imo since most likely they already have an account. Otherwise, Strike is a better option since you can pay a LN invoice to yourself with fiat and gain better privacy than straight up buying corn.
Guessing you’re not coming to Pacific Bitcoin conference then?
Hopefully Binance! CZ is a lying cunt. I used to be a Swan customer, but they pissed me off with that poorly executed conversion. Then following Scott Purcell was stupid. I'm a happy River customer now for my non-KYC corn. They are set up the right way IMO.
Meant to say KYC corn.
Investors in swan rug first.
We need polls lol
What did I miss about Swan?
This will be a simultaneous rug. They will rebrand as Swanance.
Binance for sure. Going down pretty quickly
swan rug before pacific bitcoin?
Swan is -550
I’m surprised to see Swan as an option. They had a bad transition but I would be very surprised if the rug.
I expecting Binance to drop anytime now.
The custodial 401k is precarious.
😂, Swan 🦢 follow by CZ
Bisq and Robosats fixes this.
I am guesing we will see a large amount of exchanges fail at the same time but if I had to guess on who first then would say swan and then binance. 
I
Depends on where you live. If you are a U.S. citizen you were already rugged by Binance.
Curious about this line of reasoning Matt. You usually post things with good reason. We do nothing except encourage self custody and have the highest withdrawal rate of any exchange or custodian that I know of. If you know someone who can beat 64% let me know.
Several new initiatives launching to boost that even further ranging to the easiest to use multisig in the industry to gamification to encourage even more self custody.
does swan custody users bitcoin prior to withdrawal, or does swan trust a 3rd party for that?
ultimately I want to trust the least amount of parties as possible. with all due respect, swans move to another 3rd party custodian after the prime trust debacle feels like kicking the can down the road.
First party or third party there is always trust. You don’t know that the “first party” custodians have your coins. You don’t know if their security model is any better than a cold card in someone’s basement. You don’t know the security budget allocated to that. A startup will not have the same level of budget allocated to security as a qualified custodian. We use a framework of qualified custody including on chain observability, state regulation, soc2 audited, etc. We assess the risks of the various models here: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/assessing-risk-in-bitcoin-custody/
Ultimately, wire in and withdraw your bitcoin within 24h. During that 24h period they are in qualified custody with all of the above in place.
the difference between first party and third party custody is another party to trust.
anecdotal but as a humble stacker I prioritize time-to-coldcard and bare minimum parties to trust. I can buy bitcoin on cashapp and have it on a coldcard in 60 seconds, trusting only a single party. I don’t think swan competes with this and maybe I’m not swan’s target audience - that’s ok.
CashApp is great. We tend to serve a lot of high net worth clients and also in some cases clients that require qualified custody for various reasons. Not sure you can go to coldcard with larger amounts on cashapp. I once got a big amount stuck there that took forever to take off.
Just want to point out, as a thought experiment, that if your first party is “bob’s totally trustworthy built in my garage bitcoin store” then maybe that’s not quite as good as a third party custodian with audits and so on. CashApp is trustworthy, because it’s a public company and has a large security budget. Minimizing time in custody is always a goal. If you can get what you need there quickly, that’s awesome.
agreed on the withdrawal and purchase limits on cashapp, that’s a good value prop for swan - thanks for highlighting that.
and I think it goes without saying that a first party of “bob’s totally legit bitcoin warehouse” is obviously a little sus. it all boils down to being educated of the risks and making a personal choice.
anyway, appreciate what you’re doing. *personally* still highly skeptical of putting trust in these Trusts like bitgo and fortress but that’s the beauty of competition - I don’t have to.
Yep exactly why we write a whole article analyzing the different tradeoffs. Pretending that one is “obviously” better than the other is naive and the thought experiment proves it pretty well. As mentioned in the other thread, our clients are first party customers of the qualified custodian. We just have certain custodians we recommend for different use cases.
eh probably going to have to agree to disagree. I previously put trust in swan only to discover that meant I also put trust in prime trust. if I was to trust swan now I’d be trusting fortress or bitgo and/or others.
hope that trust works out for you, I will pass.
River is a 3rd party too bro. Anyone holding my bitcoin other than me is. It's a false comparison. And I would say no one is as good as Swan at education and promoting user taking custody. We're all at risk for the short intervals our bitcoin is with a 3rd party, whether it's Fortress or River.
you’re missing the point bud
Exactly right. If you trust someone you trust someone. By the way our clients sign terms of service agreement directly with a qualified trust company. For them it is a first party agreement, not a third party agreement. So you either trust a bitcoin startup that they’ve done all the right things, or you trust a qualified custodian, which has much more proof of work (soc2, billions in custody, track record, legal
framework for segregation of client funds, etc).
nostr:npub10000000thpep7auj058803nqtymqlf3rw87lzhe6mkfeywnpxg5sjw7nql I simply don't understand your issue here with Swan. As I see it, from the arrival time of a wire to withdrawal to your own storage is 2-24 for a $50k purchase, during most of that either asset is at the custodian. I have seen buyers be in and out in under 2 hrs. Done.
Swans margin is all on the BTC deal price/ paid. They should not handle or touch either asset. Jan's answer above confirms that they don't touch it.
Also: If the custodian f's with the statements and co-mingles funds behind the scenes, I believe all 3 Nevada, SDakota and Delaware trust industry bodies (ie industry itself ) with help to jail those specific staff. They do not want their trust industry to get f'd and break 80+ years of legal precedent in their state (and lose their Trust biz to the other 2), over some pittance (to them) $100m rugpull. These are Walton level jurisdictions.
Ie: I believe there is be the genuine threat of US jail time on staff action/inaction.
We will know if that becomes true as PT plays out in Nevada court.
Alternatively, what other method do you suggest for >$50k deals except an independent custodian. That's worked for bearer assets for a long long time.
🫡
whats happening in swan? that guy saved people from other rugs?!?
This is quite the insinuation. What would lead you to such a drastic conclusion about us?
Not sure what Odell knows. From public info maybe it has to do with PT.
It’s unprecedented to have funds in legally segregated trust accounts clawed back. That’s the whole point of a trust company. It segregates business operations from client funds.
Agreed. This is an accusation with nothing to back it up. It's deliberately ambiguous. We all know about Binance, we all assume Swan is fine & trustworthy. Unless he has some behind the scenes information that hasn't got out yet then he should not post a comment like this. It's irresponsible.
Exactly. He won’t respond to my Telegram DMs either. Surprising from Matt.
And by the way, there’s no inside information about Swan he could know that I don’t. There is nothing. 64% of sats purchased at Swan every month are withdrawn. We encourage and support self-custody as much as possible. Every other sat is in a legally segregated trust account in the client’s name and, by definition, 100% reserve. Only bitcoin, of course. There is no logical reason to compare us to Binance. 🤔
Followed #plebchain
Is there an pdate to any of this yet? I haven't seen anything
Yo, someone fill me in on the drama please. I have friends with money on Swan. Been trying to encourage them to get off.
#asknostr nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx
I have a lot of respect for the work you do because you try to give objective takes. What is your objective reasoning for comparing Swan to Binance in this way? I think we deserve to hear it.
Odell is investor in River. Follow the money baby!
He should be disclosing this every time he talks trash on Swan which has been an amazing source of education in the space.
Bitcoiners attacking bitcoiners ain't cool, ALLCAPS.
is it ok to trash on swan already?
Curious about this one ...
binance already rugged anyone who sent them bitcoin. that's a trick question, that is
Curious to know why swan was mentioned. I thought they loved the self custody of Bitcoin. Feel like I'm missing something or some context here.
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Ugh. I’m gonna have to do some research. Mine goes to cold storage anyway, but still.
Swan. They always point the finger at everyone else so no one looks at them. Their centralized custodian reliance of Prime Trust nearly rugged their users. River has a better business model for bitcoin only companies. But really it doesn’t matter where you get your bitcoin, just take self custody asap (while minimizing utxo’s) so your reliance on any centralized exchange is minimal. (Yeah I know peer to peer is better)
different size of rug... question is who has already rugged its users but we dont know yet..?
Wallet of Satoshi :-)
Swan
Wouldn't be surprised if Swan rugged. They narrowly escaped Prime Trust's magic carpet ride, then migrated everyone to Fortress, which was founded by Prime Trust's founder, Scott Purcell, and staffed with former SVB compliance officers. Very unsavory all around.
As I type, they are experiencing technical difficulties with their Bitcoin purchasing portal thingy.
I never have a clue what you're going on about ODELL! who decides?
Here is a prediction market, let's bet:
https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/who-rugs-first-swan-or-binance
who rugs first? satoshi or vitalik?
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Swan wouldn't be a surprise by any stretch. Binance can keep their ship afloat for a lot longer due to the sheer size of the shitcoin faucets they can tap in to.
Both in the same week would be a decent outcome for stone cold stackers. Might be some tears shed along the way.
As a sidequest... WoS pulls the mother of all LN rugs in the meantime.
CZ imo. Swan is small enough to get bailed out, but once Binance starts imploding, I don't see anyone who can and would step in.
Swan already rugged. It's called "spreadgate" and it happened November 2022.
No sure at this point
👀😬💀☠️
Is Strike planning to open source? That’s the only thing holding me back from using the product.
Swan
You now..
Hell, we sat on the side and saw a body flowing down the river. Now scan the horizon looking for the second one
Wow.
lol